Kara Winters

From our “greatest living statistical communicator” (Tim Harford) comes an invaluable, data-driven guide for understanding—and learning to embrace—risk and uncertainty in our daily lives. How dangerous is our diet? How much in sports comes down to luck? When authorities pronounce that a given event is “highly likely”—well, how likely is that, really? Our lives are riddled with risk and uncertainty, and renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter has spent his career crunching data to decode the seemingly random events that define our experiences, as well as the numerous decisions we each make in the face of imperfect knowledge. In The Art of Uncertainty, he illuminates how all of us can do this better. Revealing the principles of probability—a field that informs everything from annuities to pandemics and climate change—he shows how we can measure our confidence, better evaluate cause and effect, and update our beliefs about the future in the face of constantly changing experience. Drawing on fascinating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty in a world that makes it inevitable.

National Bestseller: “Tricks for performing accurate mental calculations and fun alternate approaches to common math class difficulties.” — Library Journal Millions of otherwise successful adults are afraid to balance their checkbooks and don’t know how to figure interest on savings or credit. Millions of students dread their math classes and live in fear of the math section of the SAT. But, as Scott Flansburg, “the human calculator,” demonstrates in this revised edition, anyone can put these phobias to rest and deal with essential everyday mathematical calculations with confidence! • Master the basics • The real way addition, subtraction, multiplication, and division work • Simplify calculations through estimation • Quick-check your answers • Convert metric measures to more familiar ones • Figure tips, taxes, and percentages—and never get shortchanged again!

Beyond Multiple Linear Regression: Applied Generalized Linear Models and Multilevel Models in R is designed for undergraduate students who have successfully completed a multiple linear regression course, helping them develop an expanded modeling toolkit that includes non-normal responses and correlated structure. Even though there is no mathematical prerequisite, the authors still introduce fairly sophisticated topics such as likelihood theory, zero-inflated Poisson, and parametric bootstrapping in an intuitive and applied manner. The case studies and exercises feature real data and real research questions; thus, most of the data in the textbook comes from collaborative research conducted by the authors and their students, or from student projects. Every chapter features a variety of conceptual exercises, guided exercises, and open-ended exercises using real data. After working through this material, students will develop an expanded toolkit and a greater appreciation for the wider world of data and statistical modeling. A solutions manual for all exercises is available to qualified instructors at the book’s website at www.routledge.com, and data sets and Rmd files for all case studies and exercises are available at the authors’ GitHub repo (https://github.com/proback/BeyondMLR)

Geocomputation with R is for people who want to analyze, visualize and model geographic data with open source software. It is based on R, a statistical programming language that has powerful data processing, visualization, and geospatial capabilities. The book equips you with the knowledge and skills to tackle a wide range of issues manifested in geographic data, including those with scientific, societal, and environmental implications. This book will interest people from many backgrounds, especially Geographic Information Systems (GIS) users interested in applying their domain-specific knowledge in a powerful open source language for data science, and R users interested in extending their skills to handle spatial data. The book is divided into three parts: (I) Foundations, aimed at getting you up-to-speed with geographic data in R, (II) extensions, which covers advanced techniques, and (III) applications to real-world problems. The chapters cover progressively more advanced topics, with early chapters providing strong foundations on which the later chapters build. Part I describes the nature of spatial datasets in R and methods for manipulating them. It also covers geographic data import/export and transforming coordinate reference systems. Part II represents methods that build on these foundations. It covers advanced map making (including web mapping), "bridges" to GIS, sharing reproducible code, and how to do cross-validation in the presence of spatial autocorrelation. Part III applies the knowledge gained to tackle real-world problems, including representing and modeling transport systems, finding optimal locations for stores or services, and ecological modeling. Exercises at the end of each chapter give you the skills needed to tackle a range of geospatial problems. Solutions for each chapter and supplementary materials providing extended examples are available at https://geocompr.github.io/geocompkg/articles/.

From preeminent math personality and author of The Joy of x, a brilliant and endlessly appealing explanation of calculus—how it works and why it makes our lives immeasurably better.    Without calculus, we wouldn’t have cell phones, TV, GPS, or ultrasound. We wouldn’t have unraveled DNA or discovered Neptune or figured out how to put 5,000 songs in your pocket. Though many of us were scared away from this essential, engrossing subject in high school and college, Steven Strogatz’s brilliantly creative, down-to-earth history shows that calculus is not about complexity; it’s about simplicity. It harnesses an unreal number—infinity—to tackle real-world problems, breaking them down into easier ones and then reassembling the answers into solutions that feel miraculous. Infinite Powers recounts how calculus tantalized and thrilled its inventors, starting with its first glimmers in ancient Greece and bringing us right up to the discovery of gravitational waves (a phenomenon predicted by calculus). Strogatz reveals how this form of math rose to the challenges of each age: how to determine the area of a circle with only sand and a stick; how to explain why Mars goes “backwards” sometimes; how to make electricity with magnets; how to ensure your rocket doesn’t miss the moon; how to turn the tide in the fight against AIDS. As Strogatz proves, calculus is truly the language of the universe. By unveiling the principles of that language, Infinite Powers makes us marvel at the world anew. 

AN INSTANT NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER! An ode to triangles, the shape that makes our lives possible   Trigonometry is perhaps the most essential concept humans have ever devised. The simple yet versatile triangle allows us to record music, map the world, launch rockets into space, and be slightly less bad at pool. Triangles underpin our day-to-day lives and civilization as we know it.   In Love Triangle , Matt Parker argues we should all show a lot more love for triangles, along with all the useful trigonometry and geometry they enable. To prove his point, he uses triangles to create his own digital avatar, survive a harrowing motorcycle ride, cut a sandwich, fall in love, measure tall buildings in a few awkward bounds, and make some unusual art. Along the way, he tells extraordinary and entertaining stories of the mathematicians, engineers, and philosophers—starting with Pythagoras—who dared to take triangles seriously.   This is the guide you should have had in high school—a lively and definitive answer to “Why do I need to learn about trigonometry?” Parker reveals triangles as the hidden pattern beneath the surface of the contemporary world. Like love, triangles actually are all around. And in the air. And they’re all you need.

In this "important and comprehensive" guide to statistical thinking (New Yorker), discover how data literacy is changing the world and gives you a better understanding of life’s biggest problems.    Statistics are everywhere, as integral to science as they are to business, and in the popular media hundreds of times a day. In this age of big data, a basic grasp of statistical literacy is more important than ever if we want to separate the fact from the fiction, the ostentatious embellishments from the raw evidence -- and even more so if we hope to participate in the future, rather than being simple bystanders. In The Art of Statistics , world-renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter shows readers how to derive knowledge from raw data by focusing on the concepts and connections behind the math. Drawing on real world examples to introduce complex issues, he shows us how statistics can help us determine the luckiest passenger on the Titanic, whether a notorious serial killer could have been caught earlier, and if screening for ovarian cancer is beneficial. The Art of Statistics not only shows us how mathematicians have used statistical science to solve these problems -- it teaches us how we too can think like statisticians. We learn how to clarify our questions, assumptions, and expectations when approaching a problem, and -- perhaps even more importantly -- we learn how to responsibly interpret the answers we receive. Combining the incomparable insight of an expert with the playful enthusiasm of an aficionado, The Art of Statistics is the definitive guide to stats that every modern person needs.

Popular math at its most entertaining and enlightening. " Zero is really something"-Washington Post A New York Times Notable Book. The Babylonians invented it, the Greeks banned it, the Hindus worshiped it, and the Church used it to fend off heretics. Now it threatens the foundations of modern physics. For centuries the power of zero savored of the demonic; once harnessed, it became the most important tool in mathematics. For zero, infinity's twin, is not like other numbers. It is both nothing and everything. In Zero , Science Journalist Charles Seife follows this innocent-looking number from its birth as an Eastern philosophical concept to its struggle for acceptance in Europe, its rise and transcendence in the West, and its ever-present threat to modern physics. Here are the legendary thinkers—from Pythagoras to Newton to Heisenberg, from the Kabalists to today's astrophysicists—who have tried to understand it and whose clashes shook the foundations of philosophy, science, mathematics, and religion. Zero has pitted East against West and faith against reason, and its intransigence persists in the dark core of a black hole and the brilliant flash of the Big Bang. Today, zero lies at the heart of one of the biggest scientific controversies of all time: the quest for a theory of everything.

“Witty, compelling, and just plain fun to read . . ." — Evelyn Lamb,  Scientific American The Freakonomics of math—a math-world superstar unveils the hidden beauty and logic of the world and puts its power in our hands The math we learn in school can seem like a dull set of rules, laid down by the ancients and not to be questioned. In How Not to Be Wrong , Jordan Ellenberg shows us how terribly limiting this view is: Math isn’t confined to abstract incidents that never occur in real life, but rather touches everything we do—the whole world is shot through with it. Math allows us to see the hidden structures underneath the messy and chaotic surface of our world. It’s a science of not being wrong, hammered out by centuries of hard work and argument. Armed with the tools of mathematics, we can see through to the true meaning of information we take for granted: How early should you get to the airport? What does “public opinion” really represent? Why do tall parents have shorter children? Who really won Florida in 2000? And how likely are you, really, to develop cancer? How Not to Be Wrong presents the surprising revelations behind all of these questions and many more, using the mathematician’s method of analyzing life and exposing the hard-won insights of the academic community to the layman—minus the jargon. Ellenberg chases mathematical threads through a vast range of time and space, from the everyday to the cosmic, encountering, among other things, baseball, Reaganomics, daring lottery schemes, Voltaire, the replicability crisis in psychology, Italian Renaissance painting, artificial languages, the development of non-Euclidean geometry, the coming obesity apocalypse, Antonin Scalia’s views on crime and punishment, the psychology of slime molds, what Facebook can and can’t figure out about you, and the existence of God. Ellenberg pulls from history as well as from the latest theoretical developments to provide those not trained in math with the knowledge they need. Math, as Ellenberg says, is “an atomic-powered prosthesis that you attach to your common sense, vastly multiplying its reach and strength.” With the tools of mathematics in hand, you can understand the world in a deeper, more meaningful way. How Not to Be Wrong will show you how.

These simple math secrets and tricks will forever change how you look at the world of numbers. Secrets of Mental Math will have you thinking like a math genius in no time. Get ready to amaze your friends—and yourself—with incredible calculations you never thought you could master, as renowned “mathemagician” Arthur Benjamin shares his techniques for lightning-quick calculations and amazing number tricks. This book will teach you to do math in your head faster than you ever thought possible, dramatically improve your memory for numbers, and—maybe for the first time—make mathematics fun. Yes, even you can learn to do seemingly complex equations in your head; all you need to learn are a few tricks. You’ll be able to quickly multiply and divide triple digits, compute with fractions, and determine squares, cubes, and roots without blinking an eye. No matter what your age or current math ability, Secrets of Mental Math will allow you to perform fantastic feats of the mind effortlessly. This is the math they never taught you in school.